TRENDS :: Scenario Prediction

Population Option

Population Growth Assumptions

Migration rates will be one-half those experienced from 2000 to 2010. (This is the “low” population growth forecast and produces a projected Texas population of 30.8 million people in 2040.)
This scenario assumes that the trends in the age, sex, and race/ethnicity net migration rates from 2010-2015 will continue.

Fuel Efficiency Variables Reset

Fuel Efficiency

Select the fuel efficiency assumption for personal vehicles.
Select the fuel efficiency assumption for commercial vehicles.
Consult the User's Guide for a detailed explanation and specific values for each fuel efficiency assumption.

New CapacityReset

New Capacity

Would you like to invest additional state funds in increased transportation capacity?
The 2030 Committee has conducted a detailed study of Texas’ transportation infrastructure needs. You can access their conclusions regarding transportation needs here. You may enter a different level of investment if you choose.
How much total additional capacity funding would you like to provide? (in billions of dollars.) $
Enter the year when you would like the capacity additions to begin.
Enter the year you would like the additional capacity to be completed.

Maintenance Variables

Maintenance

For a detailed explanation of the maintenance options, please see the User's Guide. For a more complete discussion, you can read the 2030 Committee report here.
Use current TxDOT maintenance scenario?
For the 2030 Committee Maintenance estimate of pavements in good or better condition, use: 90 percent 87 percent 80 percent

Expense Variables Reset

Default Expense Variables

Change default values for expense increases? (Currently 1%)
Annual Percent Increase in Planning Expenses (2027-2050)
Annual Percent Increase in Build Expenses (2027-2050)
Annual Percent Increase in Maintenance Expenses (2027-2050)
Annual Percent Increase in Use Expenses (2027-2050)
Annual Percent Increase in Manage Expenses (2027-2050)
Annual percent increase in cost of other agencies funded by TxDOT (2027-2050)
Annual percent increase in contributions from TxDOT to Comptroller and Retirement (2027-2050)

Category Expense Variables

Change default values for category expense increases? (Currently 1%)
Annual percent increase in Category 1 Preventive and Routine Maintanance Expenses (2027-2050)
Annual percent increase in Category 5 CMAQ expenses (2027-2050)
Annual percent increase in Category 6 Bridge Maintenance (2027-2050)
Annual percent increase in Category 7 STP Metro Mobility and Maintenance expenses (2027-2050)
Annual percent increase in Category 8 Federal Safety expenses (2027-2050)
Annual percent increase in Category 9 Federal Enhancement expenses (2027-2050)
Annual percent in Category 10 Supplemental Transportation Projects expenses (2027-2050)
Annual percent increase in Category 11 District Discretionary funding (2027-2050)

State Gasoline and Diesel Tax VariablesResetSet test values

State Gasoline Tax

Would you like to increase the state gasoline tax?
How much would you increase the state gasoline tax? (Enter increase in cents per gallon.)
In what fiscal year would you like the increase to become effective? (Enter fiscal year.)
Would you like to increase the state gasoline tax again?
How much would you increase the state gasoline tax? (Enter the 2nd increase in cents per gallon.)
When would you like the second increase to become effective? (Enter fiscal year.)

State Diesel Fuel Tax

Would you like to increase the state diesel fuel tax?
How much would you increase the state diesel fuel tax? (Enter increase in cents per gallon)
In what fiscal year would you like the increase to become effective? (Enter fiscal year.)
Would you like to increase the state diesel fuel tax again?
How much would you increase the state diesel fuel tax? (Enter the 2nd increase in cents per gallon.)
When would you like the second increase to become effective? (Enter fiscal year.)

Federal Gasoline and Diesel Tax Variables ResetSet test values

Federal Gasoline Tax

Would you like to increase the federal gasoline tax? (Yes or No)
How much would you increase the federal gasoline tax? (Enter increase in cents per gallon.)
In what fiscal year would you like the increase to become effective? (Enter fiscal year.)
Would you like to increase the federal gasoline tax again?
How much would you increase the federal gasoline tax? (Enter the 2nd increase in cents per gallon.)
When would you like the second increase to become effective? (Enter fiscal year.)

Federal Diesel Fuel Tax

Would you like to increase the federal diesel fuel tax?
How much would you increase the federal diesel fuel tax? (Enter increase in cents per gallon)
In what fiscal year would you like the increase to become effective? (Enter fiscal year.)
Would you like to increase the federal diesel tax again?
How much would you increase the federal diesel fuel tax? (Enter the 2nd increase in cents per gallon.)
When would you like the second increase to become effective? (Enter fiscal year.)

Total federal reimbursement as a percent of federal fuel tax revenue:

Indexing the Motor Fuels Tax Reset

Motor Fuels Tax Indexing

Do you want to index the state fuel tax to the rate of inflation of the state Highway Cost index? (Yes or No)
Do you want to index the state fuel tax to the rate of inflation of the Consumer Price Index? (Yes or No)
Do you want to index the state gasoline tax to fuel efficiency rate of improvement in fuel efficiency? (Yes or No)
If yes, in what fiscal year do you want the index to start? (Enter year)

Percent of Revenue Dedicated to Transportation

Enter the net percent of the state fuel tax increase dedicated to transportation.
Note: Under current constitutional provisions 75 percent of the state motor fuel tax is dedicated to transportation. However, the effective net percentage dedicated to transportation is approximately 74 percent. For Example, if you like to maintain the current constitutional provisions, enter 74 percent. If you would like all the fuel tax revenues derived from the increase you entered earlier to be dedicated to transportation, enter 100 percent.

Vehicle Registration Fee Variables ResetSet test values

Vehicle Registration Fee

Would you like to change the vehicle registration fees?
How much would you increase all vehicle registration fees?
How much would you increase the Motorcycle Fee? (current fee $30.00)
How much would you increase the Passenger Vehicle/Trucks < 6,000 LBS Fee? (current fee $50.75)
How much would you increase the Trailers/Travel Trailers < 6,000 LBS Fee? (current fee $45.00)
How much would you increase the Vehicles 6,001 lbs to 10,000 lbs fee? (current fee $54.00)
How much would you increase the Vehicles 10,001 lbs to 18,000 lbs fee? (current fee $110.00)
How much would you increase the Vehicles 18,001 lbs to 26,000 lbs fee? (current fee $205.00)
How much would you increase the Vehicles 26,001 lbs to 40,000 lbs fee? (current fee $340.00)
How much would you increase the Vehicles 40,001 lbs to 55,000 lbs fee? (current fee $535.00)
How much would you increase the Vehicles 55,001 lbs to 70,000 lbs fee? (current fee $740.00)
How much would you increase the Vehicles 70,001 lbs to 80,000 lbs fee? (current fee $840.00)
In what fiscal year would you like the change to become effective?
Would you like to change the vehicle registration fees again?
How much would you increase all vehicle registration fees again?
How much would you increase the Motorcycle Fee?
How much would you increase the Passenger Vehicle< 6,000 LBS Fee?
How much would you increase the Trailers/Travel Trailers < 6,000 LBS Fee?
How much would you increase the Vehicles 6,001 lbs to 10,000 lbs fee?
How much would you increase the Vehicles 10,001 lbs to 18,000 lbs fee?
How much would you increase the Vehicles 18,001 lbs to 26,000 lbs fee?
How much would you increase the Vehicles 26,001 lbs to 40,000 lbs fee?
How much would you increase the Vehicles 40,001 lbs to 55,000 lbs fee?
How much would you increase the Vehicles 55,001 lbs to 70,000 lbs fee?
How much would you increase the Vehicles 70,001 lbs to 80,000 lbs fee?
In what fiscal year would you like the change to become effective?

Alternative Fuel Variables ResetSet test values

Alternative Fuel Inputs

Would you like to impose an annual state fee on alternative vehicles?
Note: The Slow, Medium, and Fast growth rate scenarios refer to both the speed of market entry (diffusion) and the volume of vehicles (saturation). A fourth scenario, BNEF, is available for electric vehicles only as an additional medium growth scenario.
Enter electric vehicle annual fee.
Please select a growth rate for electric vehicles. (BNEF stands for Bloomberg New Energy Finance trend)
Enter hybrid vehicle annual fee.
Please select a growth rate for hybrid vehicles.
Enter other alternative fuel vehicle annual fee (natural gas, propane, conversion, etc.)..
Please select a growth rate for other alternative fuel vehicles.
In what fiscal year would you like the change to become effective?

VM Fee Variables Reset Set test values

State VM Fee

Do you want to impose a state vehicle-miles-traveled (VM) fee?
Enter VM Fee per mile for personal vehicles (cents per mile)
Enter the fiscal year to begin collecting VM Fee on personal vehicles.
Enter VM Fee per mile for commercial vehicles (cents per mile)
Enter the fiscal year to begin collecting the VM Fee on commercial vehicles.
If you would like to end the state gasoline tax, enter the last fiscal year to collect the tax.
If you would like to end the state diesel fuel tax, enter the last fiscal year to collect the tax.

Distribution of Funds from Revenue Enhancements Reset

Percentage Variables on Maintenance and Mobility

Percent of Revenue Enhancements Spent on Maintenance
Note : The percentage of revenue enhancements spent on mobility is calculated automatically.
Percent of Revenue Enhancements Spent on Mobility

Distribution of Mobility Revenue Enhancements to Categories

Percent of Revenue Enhancements Allocated to Category 2M %
Percent of Revenue Enhancements Allocated to Category 2U %
Percent of Revenue Enhancements Allocated to Category 5 %
Percent of Revenue Enhancements Allocated to Category 7 %
Percent of Revenue Enhancements Allocated to Category 9 %
Percent of Revenue Enhancements Allocated to Category 11 %
Note : These percentages represent the average percentages of all Category 2 through 12 expenditures allocated to the indicated categories based on TxDOT Cash Flow Forecasts. To the extent that you change these percentages, the percentages allocated to Categories 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, and 12 will be changed.

Bond Finance Variables Reset

Bond Finance Variables

Do you want to issue General Obligation bonds?
Enter General Obligation Bond amount in billions of $
Enter number of years to receive General Obligation Bond proceeds
Enter first year to receive General Obligation Bond proceeds
Do you want to Issue Revenue Bonds?
Enter Revenue Bond proceeds in billions of $
Enter number of years to receive Revenue Bond proceeds
Enter first year to receive Revenue Bond proceeds
Enter year to start Revenue Bond payback

Economic Impact Variables Reset

Economic Impact Variables

To calculate economic impacts, please select an MPO under Local Options
Rate of Return
Please select a rate of return
Business Profit %
Please select a percentage of business profit
Savings Rate %
Please select a savings rate